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ChristianKl comments on Test Driven Thinking - Less Wrong Discussion
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Comments (26)
Very few people reason in a way that uses probabilities.
True, but I would consider the most common chain of reasoning for atheism (Occam's razor, therefore no God) equivalent to thinking in terms of probabilities even if probabilities aren't explicitly mentioned.
Occam's razor has little to do with probabilities.
Then why accept the simplest solution instead of say, the most beautiful solution, or the most intuitive solution?
Good question. I'd argue that actually accepting the most elegant solution is a better heuristic than accepting the simplest.
Because you decide to accept the simplest solution. At least that's true for most people. Very few people reason with probabilities.