= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
ZeitPolizei comments on Open thread, Aug. 03 - Aug. 09, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (177)
Using Prediction Book (or other prediction software) for motivation
Does anyone have experience with the effects of documenting things you need to do in PredictionBook (or something similar) and the effects it has on motivation/actually doing those things? Basically, is it possible to boost your productivity by making more optimistic predictions? I've been dabbling with PredictionBook and tried it with two (related) things I had to do, which did not work at all.
Thoughts, experiences?
I've made a fair number of predictions about things I need to do on PredictionBook, and I don't think it has had much any effect on my motivation. Boosting your productivity might be possible if you make optimistic predictions if you are strongly motivated to be well calibrated.
Another possible use of PredictionBook for motivation is getting a more objective view on whether you might complete a task by a certain date. If others think you are overconfident, then you could put in place additional things to ensure you complete the task.
Another idea: Self-fulfilling prophecies
This seems to be the general name for the phenomena of a prediction causing itself to be fulfilled. I don't have time to read the Wikipedia entry right now, but I suspect it'll offer some ideas about how to use predictions to your own advantage. Let me know if you think of anything good. I'll post a reply here if I do.
I am afraid that the perverse incentives would be harmful here. The easy way to achieve perfect accuracy in predicting your own future action is to predict failure, and then fail intentionally.
Even if one does not consciously go so far, it could still be unconsciously tempting to predict slightly smaller probability of success, because you can always adjust the outcome downwards.
To avoid this effect completely, (as a hypothetical utility maximizer) you would have to care about your success infinitely more than about predicting correctly. In which case, why bother predicting?
When you write the predictions, do you simply add optimism without changing the processes to reach a conclusion, or do you try to map out the "how" of making an outcome match more optimistic outcomes?
Good point, when I wrote down the predictions, I just used my usual unrealistically optimistic estimate of: "This is in principle doable in this time and I want to do it.", i.e. my usual "planning" mode, without considering how often I usually fail to execute my "plans". So in this case, I think I adjusted neither my optimism, nor my plans, I only put my estimate for success into actual numbers for the first time (and hoped that would do the trick).