Would this involve shorting stocks? That seems dodgy, given that the default is for stock to rise. And if my probability distribution is about 50% crash, 40% surge upwards, 10% stability, then shorting isn't a particularly good idea.
Or maybe its time to buy some bitcoin...
You can express quite complicated views in financial markets.
about 50% crash, 40% surge upwards, 10% stability
That distribution doesn't look like "the default is for stock to rise" :-) Besides, a 2008-magnitude crash would probably drive the equity markets to what, half of their current value? You can't expect a "surge upward" to give you symmetrical gains on the upside, so your expected distribution is very lopsided.
Let's make things even simpler -- you believe that in half a year we'll end up in one of two states -- either, with a...
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