Perhaps you could expand it and post to discussion, so it can be found by tags? I seem to remember a passage in SSC about good/poor calibration and high/low probabilities, in that recent post about internet communities, freedom and witch migration...
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)
3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.
4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.