That first link is very interesting-- what I'm taking away from it is that there is no shortcut. Your gut isn't necessarily on your side. Neither is your partner. The ideology which says it's on your side may not be quite as good as you think it is. The odds (if we can go with the article and its comments) that your friends are on your side are relatively good, but it's still a gamble.

You have to keep drilling down and hope that you hit reality.