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Lumifer comments on Open Thread August 31 - September 6 - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: Elo 30 August 2015 09:26PM

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Comment author: Lumifer 01 September 2015 09:12:54PM 1 point [-]

If a Blackberry signifies (or signified) middle-to-senior-manager status, then it's a high-status signal for a minion and a low-status signal for the big-company CEO.

Flip the sign :-) What status does the lack of a Blackberry signify?

Comment author: gjm 01 September 2015 11:31:27PM 0 points [-]

It signifies a set of possible statuses; more precisely, either the presence or the absence of a Blackberry actually signifies something more like a probability distribution over statuses. (More precisely still, they're likelihoods rather than probabilities, and needn't sum to 1.) The absence-of-Blackberry distribution is like a notch filter; learning that someone doesn't have one makes it (or did, a few years back) much less likely that someone occupies the middle-to-senior-manager niche.

This (I take it this is your point) can produce more counterintuitive updates than a more "unimodal" signal like the presence of a Blackberry. Learning that someone has no Blackberry will tend to make your assessment of their ( corporate) status more "extreme". You can call that a sign flip if you like; I'm not convinced that's a helpful way to look at it.