It is war, not "a vicious government reaction." If the government had been immediately destroyed, as in Libya, there would still be war between the opposition factions. Indeed, fighting continue in Libya and refugees continue from it. A big difference between Tunisia+Egypt and Libya+Syria is whether the opposition is united or divided.
So far as I know, it started as a vicious government reaction, but now (as you say) there's a war which would continue even in the absence of the Syrian government.
If the Syrian government had reacted better to the drought, would Syria have been as vulnerable to war?
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