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MattG comments on Open thread, Sep. 14 - Sep. 20, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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This depends on whether you model contrarianism and futurism as a bias ('Hanson is especially untrustworthy about futurist topics, since he works in the area') v. modeling contrarianism and futurism as skills one can train or bodies of knowledge one can learn ('Hanson is especially trustworthy about futurist topics, since he works in the area').
My typical heuristic for reliable experts (taken from Thinking Fast and Slow I think) is that if experts have tight, reliable feedback loops, they tend to be more trustworthy. Futurism obviously fails this test. Contrarianism isn't really a "field" in itself, and I tend to think of it more as a bias... although EY would obviously disagree.
Then it might be that futurism is irrelevant, rather than being expertise-like or bias-like. (Unless we think 'studying X while lacking tight, reliable feedback loops' in this context is worse than 'neither studying X nor having tight, reliable feedback loops.')
Thiel, Yudkowsky, Hanson, etc. use "contrarian" to mean someone who disagrees with mainstream views. Most contrarians are wrong, though correct contrarians are more impressive than correct conformists (because it's harder to be right about topics where the mainstream is wrong).
In this case futurism is two things in these people: 1. A belief in expertise about the future. 2. A tendency towards optimism about the future. Combined, these mean that these people both think cryonics will work in the future, and are more confident in this assertion than warranted.
I don't think so... it's more someone who has the tendency(in the sense of an aesthetic preference) to disagree with mainstream views. In this case, they would tend to be drawn towards cryonics because it's out of the mainstream, which should give us less confidence that they're drawn towards cryonics because it's correct.
One of the most common ways they use the word "contrarian" is to refer to beliefs that are rejected by the mainstream, for whatever reason; by extension, contrarian people are people who hold contrarian beliefs. (E.g., Galileo is a standard example of a "correct contrarian" whether his primary motivation was rebelling against the establishment or discovering truth.) "Aesthetic preference" contrarianism is a separate idea; I don't think it matters which definition we use for "contrarianism".
I think it matters in this context. If these people are contrarian simply because they happen to have lots of different views, then it's irrelevant that they're contrarian. If they're contrarian because they're DRAWN towards contrarian views, it means they're biased towards cryonics.
I agree it matters in this case, but it doesn't matter whether we use the word "contrarianism" vs. tabooing it.
Also, your summary assumes one of the points under dispute: whether it's possible to be good at arriving at true non-mainstream beliefs ('correct contrarianism'), or whether people who repeatedly outperform the mainstream are just lucky. 'Incorrect contrarianism' and 'correct-by-coincidence contrarianism' aren't the only two possibilities.
Ok, so to summarize:
1a. If you believe futurists have more expertise on the future, then they are more likely to be correct about cryonics.
1b. If you believe expertise needs tight feedback loops, they are less likely to be correct about cryonics.
1c. If you believe futurists are drawn towards optimistic views about they future, they are less likely to be correct about cryonics.
2.These people are contrarians
2a. If you believe they have a "correct contrarian cluster" of views, they are more likely to be correct about cryonics.
2b. If you believe that they arrived at contrarian views by chance, they are no more or less likely to be correct about cryonics.
2c. If you believe that they arrived at contrarian views because they are drawn to contrarian views, they are less likely to be correct about cryonics.
I believe 1b, 1c, and 2c. You believe 1a and 2a. Is that correct?