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Gunnar_Zarncke comments on Matching donation funds and the problem of illusory matching - Less Wrong Discussion
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The incentivization scheme is tricky and I'd guess (>70%) that it would work (significant increase in giving).
But - and this is independent of the scheme - I dispute your motivating assumption of illusority
at least in its full generality. The donor could feel that if his own charitable giving isn't suitably matched then it is voided (and presumably invested in some other way). I'd act that way to some degree. I think some many people some need for reciprocation and this is more a question of degree.