gjm comments on Open thread, Sep. 21 - Sep. 27, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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I'm curious which of the two major political parties in the US (and left wing vs. right wing parties more generally) people think is most likely to reduce existential risk. My current view is that the Democrats (and parties of the left) are since they're more likely to favor policies which reduce the threat of climate change (a tail end existential risk and a potential destabilizing force) and are more likely to favor nuclear non-proliferation. However, I know my own opinions might be biased by the fact that I agree with left wing parties on most other less important issues. Which party do you think would do the most to reduce existential risk and how substantial do you think the difference is?
Answers to this are going to have to depend on politically sensitive judgements, I think, because most of the impact of politicians on existential risk will be indirect and involve things like the overall prosperity of the nation they're leading. Let's look at some classes of existential risk:
I'm seeing scarcely anything here whose answer doesn't depend on things about which people disagree along political lines.
My own answer to your question is: the difference might be quite large but it's very indirect and complicated, so I see rather little prospect of figuring out which way it goes, so I'm going to carry on voting on the basis of things I actually have (or at least fondly imagine I have) some prospect of understanding. I have (or think I have) some ability to predict, on a timescale of a few years, the effect of one party's victory on my own household finances, the risk of some possible near-future wars, the welfare of poor and vulnerable people, the competitiveness of the nation's businesses, etc., and looking at those is probably more effective than trying to guess their very indirect effects on x-risk.