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Dagon comments on Some thoughts on meta-probabilties - Less Wrong Discussion

0 Post author: iarwain1 21 September 2015 05:23PM

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Comment author: Dagon 21 September 2015 09:24:57PM 0 points [-]

Ideally, your current probability should include the probabilility-weighted average of all possible future evidence. This is required for consistency of probability across those evidence-producing timelines. Collectively, the set of probabilities of future experiences is your prior.

But this article isn't talking about belief or decision-making, it's talking about communication (and perhaps encoding in a limited storage mechanism like a brain). You really don't have the power to do that calculation well, nor to communicate in this level of detail. The idea of a probability range or probability curve is one reasonable (IMO) way to summarize a large set of partly-correlated future evidence.