Maybe what's actually going here is different interpretations of "the hiatus exists"
"Hiatus exists" is a simple and plain phrase. I think you just confused yourself by trying to add a lot of meaning to this phrase (in particular, whether "random variation" might or might not be a sufficient explanation).
"just eyeball the data, it's obvious" is really bad advice
You are confusing observation and interpretation. Having said that, I'm a big fan of the Intraocular Trauma significance test :-)
"Hiatus exists" is a simple and plain phrase
... which can mean at least two reasonable things: (1) a particular set of measurements stopped increasing so fast; (2) the underlying process stopped or slowed. It seems clear that #2 is the more interesting of these.
I'm a big fan of the Intraocular Trauma significance test
(Interocular: between the eyes.) It makes for a good soundbite, but I don't think it's usually the best criterion. There's a reason why fancier and more objective significance tests have been developed!
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
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