Not sure why you're using this unusual terminology, but I'm arguing about what you call existence. It seems that you're arguing that the 'hiatus' exists with either absolute certainty (in which case you'd have to provide a logical proof) or at least with very high likelihood. However, I see no reason we should assign a very high likelihood to its existence.
The 'existence' of a 'trend' or 'hiatus' in general time series data is part of the map, not the territory. If the climate temperature data were just a smooth line (like this - graph not relevant to the discussion) then I'd agree with you, but it's not. It looks like this.
What's unusual about my terminology?
The 'existence' of a 'trend' or 'hiatus' in general time series data is part of the map, not the territory.
I am not sure about that. In your "smooth line" example, is the trend part of the map or the territory? More generally, what can I say about a time series that you would consider to be territory and not map?
Oh, and if you want to be technical about it, the time series you're looking at is not part of the territory to start with. It's a complex model-dependent aggregate.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
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