when I really meant 'outside view'
Let's sort out the terminology. I think we mean different things by "outside view".
As far as I understand you, for you the "outside view" means not trying to come to any conclusions on your own, but rather accept what the authorities (mainstream, experts, etc.) tell you. Essentially, when you recommend "outside view" to people you tell them not to think for themselves but rather accept what others are telling them (see e.g. here).
I understand "outside view" a bit more traditionally (see e.g. here) and treat it as a forecasting technique. Basically, when you want to forecast something using the inside view, you treat that something as 'self-propelled', in a way, you look at its internal workings and mechanisms to figure out what will happen to it. If you take the outside view, on the other hand, you treat that something as a black box that is moved primarily by external forces and so to forecast you look at these external forces and not at the internals.
Given this, I read your recommendation "teaching the person to use outside view is better" as "teach the person to NOT think for himself, but accept whatever most people around think".
I disagree with this recommendation rather strongly.
Do you really think you can teach them how to identify such a web of lies while they are stuck in one?
Why, yes, I do. In fact, I think it's the normal process of extracting oneself from "a web of lies" -- you start by realizing you're stuck in one. Of course, no one said it would be easy.
An example -- religious deconversion. How do you think it will work in your system?
Yes. The masses try to justify their ingroup, they don't try to seek truth.
Well, this theory implies some consequences. For example, it implies high negative correlation between IQ (or more fuzzy "smartness") and the strength of tribal affiliation. Do we observe it? The theory also implies that if the tribal affiliation increases (e.g. because your country got involved in a military conflict), everyone suddenly becomes much dumber. Do we observe that?
if I got into a debate with a conspiracy theorist ...I bet they would be able to consistently win when debating me.
I don't know about that. You think of winning a debate in high-school debate club terms, or maybe in a TV debate terms -- the one who scores the most points with the judges wins. That's not how real life operates. The way for the conspiracy theorist to win the debate is to convince you. Unless you became a believer at the end, he did NOT win the debate. Most debates end in a draw.
otherwise I really don't trust my own ability to figure out the truth
That's probably the core difference that leads to our disagreements. I do trust my own ability (the fact that I'm arrogant should not be a surprise to anyone). Specifically, I trust my own ability more than I trust the mainstream opinion.
Of course, my opinion and the mainstream opinion coincide on a great deal of mundane things. But when they don't, I am not terribly respectful of the mainstream opinion and do not by default yield to it.
In fact, I don't see how your approach is compatible with being on LW. Let's take Alice who is a LessWrongian and is concerned about FAI risks. And let's take Bob who subscribes to your approach of defering to the mainstream.
Alice goes: "I'm concerned about the risk of FAI."
Bob: "That's silly. You found yourself a cult with ridiculous ideas. Do you have a Ph.D. in Comp Sci or something similar? If not, you should not try have your own opinion about things you do not understand. Is the mainstream concerned about FAI? It is not. So you should not, as well."
What can Alice reply to Bob? She is, in fact, not a Ph.D. and has no particular expertise in AI.
If we take this to the extreme where someone doesn't understand truth, logic, what constitutes evidence or anything like that
I don't think you can extrapolate from very-low-IQ people to general population. By the same token, these people should not manage their own money, for example, or, in general, lead an unsupervised life.
I understand "outside view" a bit more traditionally and treat it as a forecasting technique.
The thing is, you can apply it more widely than just forecasting. Forecasting is just trying to figure out the future, and there's no reason you should limit yourself to the future.
Anyway, the way I see it, in inside view, both when forecasting and when trying to figure out truth, you focus on the specific problem you are working on, try to figure out its internals, etc.. In outside view, you look at things outside the problem, like track record of sim...
I've known for a long time that some people who are very close to me are somewhat inclined to believe the pseudoscience world, but it always seemed pretty benign. In their everyday lives they're pretty normal people and don't do any crazy things, so this was a topic I mostly avoided and left it at that. After all - they seemed to find psychological value in it. A sense of control over their own lives, a sense of purpose, etc.
Recently I found out however that at least one of them seriously believes Bruce Lipton, who in essence preaches that happy thoughts cure cancer. Now I'm starting to get worried...
Thus I'm wondering - what can I do about it? This is in essence a religious question. They believe this stuff with just anecdotal proof. How do I disprove it without sounding like "Your religion is wrong, convert to my religion, it's right"? Pseudoscientists are pretty good at weaving a web of lies that sound quite logical and true.
The one thing I've come up with is to somehow introduce them to classical logical fallacies. That at least doesn't directly conflict with their beliefs. But beyond that I have no idea.
And perhaps more important is the question - should I do anything about it? The pseudoscientific world is a rosy one. You're in control of your life and your body, you control random events, and most importantly - if you do everything right, it'll all be OK. Even if I succeed in crushing that illusion, I have nothing to put in its place. I'm worried that revealing just how truly bleak the reality is might devastate them. They seem to be drawing a lot of their happiness from these pseudoscientific beliefs, either directly or indirectly.
And anyway, more likely that I won't succeed but just ruin my (healthy) relationship with them. Maybe it's best just not to interfere at all? Even if they end up hurting themselves, well... it was their choice. Of course, that also means that I'll be standing idly by and allowing bullshit to propagate, which is kinda not a very good thing. However right now they are not very pushy about their beliefs, and only talk about them if the topic comes up naturally, so I guess it's not that bad.
Any thoughts?