See my response to ChristianKl below for my clarification on my reasoning about "consecutive coin flips" which could still be wrong but is hopefully less wrong than my original wording.
I agree that I should have discarded my model more quickly, but I don't quite see how to generalize that observation. Sometimes the alternative hypothesis (e.g. the breakages are connected) is not apparent or obvious without more data - and the process of collecting data really just means continuing to make bad predictions as you go through life until something clicks and you notice the underlying structure.
My wife seems to think that making explicit model-based predictions in the first place is the problem. I have a lot of respect for System 1 and am sympathetic to this view. But System 2 really shouldn't actively lead me astray.
my reasoning about "consecutive coin flips"
Yes, and note that this part -- "that I have to start considering that the die is loaded" -- is key.
but I don't quite see how to generalize that observation
Um, directly? All models which you are considering are much simpler than the real world. The relevant maxim is "All models are wrong, but some are useful".
I think you got caught in the trap of "but I can't change my prior because priors are not supposed to be changed". That's not exactly true. You can and (given su...
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