Climatologists who work for government agencies (that is, nearly all of them) face a strong pressure to conform to the consensus opinion.
Evidence? This is LessWrong.
So far, there is no evidence that climate models can predict weather changes over long term periods.
Based on what I've read and the contents of the IPCC report, the match between models and climate change has been pretty good so far, actually.
Based on what I've read and the contents of the IPCC report, the match between models and climate change has been pretty good so far, actually.
As you mentioned, this is LessWrong. So someone (like me) will go and look at your link. And find that it doesn't talk about forecasts, it is predominantly concerned with whether models can reproduce historically observed features of the climate. In other words, the issue is just trying to get a good fit to historical data.
By the way, if you look at p.771 and around, you'll notice that the models have a lot of difficulties with the current "hiatus".
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
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