Based on what I've read and the contents of the IPCC report, the match between models and climate change has been pretty good so far, actually.
As you mentioned, this is LessWrong. So someone (like me) will go and look at your link. And find that it doesn't talk about forecasts, it is predominantly concerned with whether models can reproduce historically observed features of the climate. In other words, the issue is just trying to get a good fit to historical data.
By the way, if you look at p.771 and around, you'll notice that the models have a lot of difficulties with the current "hiatus".
And find that it doesn't talk about forecasts, it is predominantly concerned with whether models can reproduce historically observed features of the climate
Exactly; that's what I said.
EDIT: To clarify, I'm trying to say that past models have had a good fit to data so far, so it's reasonable to expect they will continue to perform. This is certainly evidence towards climate models being able to carry out predictions, and it's how science should be done.
In other words, the issue is just trying to get a good fit to historical data.
You make it sound as ...
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