Research on expert judgement indicates experts are just as bad as nonexperts in some counterintuitive ways, like predicting the outcome of a thing,
Do you have a citation for this? My understanding was that in many fields experts perform better than nonexperts. The main thing that experts share in common with non-experts is overconfidence about their predictions.
Yep, follow the summary here to the Expert Judgement textbook if you like. I was skeptical too before I followed up this claim and actually read the textbook.
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