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gwern comments on Open thread, Nov. 09 - Nov. 15, 2015 - Less Wrong Discussion
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So reading Popper's otherwise good book on Bitcoin, Digital Gold (review), I was reminded of some of the crummy arguments for particular people being Satoshi, particularly some of the old Szabo chestnuts. I know a number of LWers also seem to overrate particular prospects. So in the spirit of 'betting is a tax on bullshit', I'd like to offer some bets. (Unfortunately, neither Augur nor Truthcoin are currently at the point where I could try out using them for this.) Before accepting my bets, I remind you that I have a pretty good track record in predictions & bets.
The bets: 'X is not Satoshi Nakamoto and this will be acknowledged generally as decided by a neutral third-party by 2030, with a push if the arbiter decides the question is still open' (judges acceptable to me would include Eliezer, Yvain, lukeprog, nanotube, etc). I won't insist on escrow for any users with at least 500 karma or otherwise known to me, and I will be taking the anti side of each bet (ie I pay you if X is Satoshi, otherwise you pay me if they aren't); we'll denominate in dollars but can settle up in Bitcoin or Paypal, whichever is more convenient when the bet ends.
The odds I'm offering:
up to a total exposure on my part of $2k.
This specific offer is open until 30 November 2015. If you want to bet after that, contact me and we may be able to arrange something (maybe with the same terms, maybe not).
(Contact me either as a reply here or email. I am backlogged on checking any replies through the LW PM interface.)
Yeah, but how cool would have been if Satoshi was Wei?
It would've been neat (I like Wei, and it looks good for LW), but unfortunately, it's not true. If Wei is not Satoshi, I desire to believe he's not Satoshi, etc.
Are you interested in betting it is one of the people on your list at 3:1 odds? My interest is academic, I have close to zero idea who may be Satoshi.
You mean, would I be willing to take the negative on a bet that Satoshi is any of Szabo/Finney/Dai/McCaleb/.../O'Mahony at 3:1 odds? Hm... Yes, I would be willing to do that bet. (I know they sum up to more than that, but the odds aren't my true odds but upper bounds, otherwise I wouldn't make any money off offering the bets!)