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Dagon comments on Help with understanding some non-standard-LW philosophy viewpoints - Less Wrong Discussion
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Or perhaps the future is also fixed, and it's incomplete models of the universe which are probabilistic. This includes models of the past, present, and future.
I don't know how to get MY model to have a probability of Putin's past actions to 1. I'm not knowledgeable enough to assign less than a hundredth of a percent to possibilities that someone else ordered airstrikes, or it's all fake, or something.