The general idea is that big decisions get in most contexts made by experts via informed intuition and not by shutting up and calculating. The math at which you are looking is shut up and calculate math.

There's substantial room for both in prediction polls.

Do you think people get substantially more alienated if the CEO says: Let's do an internal prediction market then when he transfers the same power to management consultants?

The alienation doesn't tank the project because it's not being run by the people being alienated.