Besides, searching for talent has costs. You're much better off searching for talent at top tier schools than at no-name colleges hoping for a hidden gem.
That's the signalling issue - I'm trying to create a better signal so you don't have to make that tradeoff
What "types of questions" do you have in mind? And wouldn't liquidity issues be fixed just by popularity?
Question Example: "How many units will this product sell in Q1 2016?" (Where this product is something boring, like a brand of toilet paper)
This is a question that I don't ever see being popular with the general public. If you only have a few experts in a prediction market, you don't have enough liquidity to update your predictions. With prediction polls, that isn't a problem.
That's the signalling issue
Why do you call that "signaling"? A top-tier school has a real, actual, territory-level advantage over a backwater college. The undergrads there are different.
If you only have a few experts in a prediction market, you don't have enough liquidity to update your predictions. With prediction polls, that isn't a problem.
I don't know about that not being a problem. Lack of information is lack of information. Pooling forecasts is not magical.
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