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Lumifer comments on Open Thread, January 4-10, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion
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We'll need to talk about the probability of the probability and I'm not sure that "an average person" is up for it.
Maybe one can ask "What do you think the probability of event X is?" and then ask "How sure are you of your answer to the previous question? What is the minimum and the maximum reasonable possibilities?"
Given this, you can construct some reasonable distribution over the [0..1] segment, e.g. Beta, and go on from there.
Let's say we talk about an average sensible person.
I'm not exactly sure about this subject but it feels to me like it would be good to move from what prediction book does to something like this.
When reading the IPCC report I would be very interested in something like this to get a better sense of the state of the science.