Open Thread, January 4-10, 2016

polymathwannabe

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If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.

Notes for future OT posters:

1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.

2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)

3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.

4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.

Some political predictions (Edited for formatting):

Another stock market slump within the next year: 50% (70% within two years)
Cor: Average stock value collapse, given slump, of 70%, +- 10%: 90%
Trump to get Republican nomination: 65%
Cruz to get Republican nomination: 35%
Hillary to get Democratic nomination: 30%
Rel: Hillary to be indicted on criminal charges: 50%
Sanders to get Democratic nomination: 60%
Republicans to win 2016 presidential race, regardless of nomination: 80%
Republicans to win moderate majority in both houses in 2016: 80%
Republicans to keep moderate majority in congress in 2018 given economic crash: 60%
Republicans to keep at least parity in congress in 2018 given economic crash: 80%
Republicans to keep moderate majority in congress in 2018 without economic crash: 30%
Republicans to keep at least parity in congress in 2018 without economic crash: 60%
Democrats to win 2020 presidential election without economic crash: 40%
Democrats to win 2020 presidential election with economic crash: 10%
Democrats to win 2024 presidential election, given loss of 2020 presidential election, without economic crash: 80%
Democrats to win 2024 presidential election, given loss of 2020 presidential election, with economic crash: 70%
US National Health Database goes online in next ten years: 30%
WHO to change Health Index ranking rules substantially given the US national health database goes online: 60%
WHO to change Health Index ranking rules substantially given the US national health database doesn't go online: 10%
Average global temperatures to warm by more than .7 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 0%
Average global temperatures to warm by more than .5 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 0%
Average global temperatures to warm by more than .3 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 10%
Average global temperatures to warm by more than .1 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 20%
Average global temperatures to warm by more than .07 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 30%
Average global temperatures to warm by more than .04 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 70%
Major military conflict between two first world nations over the next ten years: 10%
Threat of major military conflict between two first world nations over the next ten years: 70%

Average global temperatures to warm by more than .1 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 20%

What's your reasoning behind putting such a low probability on this one? According to this data, this proposition has been true 35 years in a row. The ten years from 1971-1980 was only 0.08 degrees C warmer than the period from 1961-1970, but every ten year period since then (beginning with 1972-1981) has been more than 0.12 C warmer than the previous 10 years.

2Douglas_Knight10y

What are "Cor:" and "Rel:"? Are those conditional predictions? What is the meaning of the global temperature predictions? Are you going to compare the average temperature of 2025 to the average temperature of 2015? The average of one decade to another? Are you going to bet on this? Your stock predictions and 2016 political predictions are pretty far from consensus and easy to bet on.

0polymathwannabe10y

Why?