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OrphanWilde comments on Open Thread, January 4-10, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: polymathwannabe 04 January 2016 01:06PM

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Comment author: OrphanWilde 11 January 2016 09:57:01PM 0 points [-]

What's your definition of a "market slump" and/or an "economic crisis"?

Let's say for simplicity a nationally recognized economic downturn amounting to at least a recession.

Also, what's Health Index and what is the US National Health Database?

I guess an unofficial name for WHO's ranking system for national healthcare systems, last performed in 2000. http://www.who.int/whr/2000/media_centre/press_release/en/

The US National Health Database is a theoretical thing that is in the works to provide patient information nationally to any hospital or medical provider which requires it, and funding was set aside in the PPACA (Obamacare); it's being implemented at a state level by federal grant, and I believe is intended to eventually operate as a set of interacting state databases rather than a single database stored somewhere.

Comment author: Lumifer 11 January 2016 10:25:16PM 3 points [-]

economic downturn amounting to at least a recession

You have a 90% probability that this "downturn" will lead to the US stock market losing two thirds of its value which is worse than 2008. That implies a bit more, um, severe event.

it's being implemented at a state level by federal grant, and I believe is intended to eventually operate as a set of interacting state databases

Ah, I know an expression that fits the situation well...

Comment author: OrphanWilde 11 January 2016 11:40:10PM 0 points [-]

You have a 90% probability that this "downturn" will lead to the US stock market losing two thirds of its value which is worse than 2008. That implies a bit more, um, severe event.

Yes.