You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

OrphanWilde comments on Open Thread, January 4-10, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: polymathwannabe 04 January 2016 01:06PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (430)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: OrphanWilde 11 January 2016 11:40:10PM 0 points [-]

You have a 90% probability that this "downturn" will lead to the US stock market losing two thirds of its value which is worse than 2008. That implies a bit more, um, severe event.

Yes.