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username2 comments on Open Thread, January 4-10, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: polymathwannabe 04 January 2016 01:06PM

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Comment author: username2 15 January 2016 09:56:28AM -1 points [-]

Average global temperatures to warm by more than .1 degrees (Celsius) over the next ten years: 20%

What's your reasoning behind putting such a low probability on this one? According to this data, this proposition has been true 35 years in a row. The ten years from 1971-1980 was only 0.08 degrees C warmer than the period from 1961-1970, but every ten year period since then (beginning with 1972-1981) has been more than 0.12 C warmer than the previous 10 years.

Comment author: OrphanWilde 15 January 2016 02:16:43PM 0 points [-]

The choice of starting year has a substantial effect.

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