So (if I'm understanding your analogy right) you expect that any drop in the market will almost certainly lead to a huge crash?
Any given spark -could- set it off, which is not the same as any given spark definitely setting it off.
From the 17th to the 25th of August last year, the S&P 500 dropped by about 11%. This led to ... about a month of generally depressed prices, followed by a month-long rise up to their previous levels. That doesn't sound to me like an economy filled with open barrels of gasoline.
If the stock market were responding appropriately to the conditions, then there wouldn't be the equivalent of open barrels of gasoline all over the place. The issue is more structural than that: Interest rates and limited investment opportunities have driven money into the markets, driving prices up, and then keeping them artificially high. Some of this pressure has been relieved by amassing inventory, but that's reached its stopping point, which is starting to cause international trade to falter.
If Pr(crash|drop) is not quite large, then Pr(smallish decline|any decline) should be reasonably big. Each observation of a drop without a crash is (some) evidence against the antecedent.
If the stock market were responding appropriately to the conditions
It sounds as if you think I was assuming that it is or should be, and I'm not sure why. Could you explain?
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
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