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Clarity comments on Open Thread, January 11-17, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

3 Post author: username2 12 January 2016 10:29AM

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Comment author: Clarity 12 January 2016 12:10:05PM *  2 points [-]

Information coupled with suprise this week:

the chance of transmission during any single episode of unprotected vaginal sex is estimated at a 1 in 2,000. Thus, the odds you were infected are 0.05 x 0.0005 = 0.000025, i.e. 1 in 40,000. That's less than your lifetime risk of getting killed by lightning (if you live in the US) and less than the chance you will die in the coming week in some sort of accident. As for other STDs, the lack of symptoms is a strong indicator that you didn't catch anything.

-Medhelp

A less authoritative but more nuanced relevant analysis is hosted here

Asset prices around the world are extremely high relative to historic norms. Across all asset classes and most parts of the world, the returns on offer are measly. But most investors buying these assets are not doing so with greed as their driving emotion, rather with a sense of reluctant resignation that they need to do something more with their cash.

-Forager

Comment author: passive_fist 12 January 2016 10:08:46PM 3 points [-]

I wouldn't put too much faith in the 1/2000 figure for chance of HIV transmission. There is no known way to calculate that with any reasonable confidence. Estimates vary from something like 1/500 to 1/2500 (this is for vaginal sex; anal sex has much higher transmission risk).

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