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MrMind comments on Open thread, Jan. 18 - Jan. 24, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

4 Post author: MrMind 18 January 2016 09:42AM

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Comment author: knb 20 January 2016 03:45:52AM *  1 point [-]

Oil prices have recently fallen to near record lows. What are the risks and benefits?

Risks:

  • Increased instability in the Mideast as governments are less able to buy the loyalty of the people.
  • Likely slow the transition to electric vehicles, may slow the overall decline of carbon emissions.
  • Many job losses in petroleum-producing locations, especially higher cost producers.

Benefits:

  • Possibly stimulate the global economy, especially good for fast-developing oil importers like China and India.
  • Might push oil producers toward economic reforms that will be needed eventually anyway.
  • Might help avert some of the resource-war scenarios that have been described as inevitable by Malthusians.

Debatable:

  • Geopolitical power relatively shifts away from Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, toward NATO/OECD and China.

Any important dynamics I'm missing?

Comment author: MrMind 20 January 2016 08:16:22AM *  2 points [-]

Only two nuances:
- Venezuela is / will very shortly also experience political instability;
- Iran has just seen heavy international sanctions lifted, so while its oil will be valued less than it could have been, it will still provide a push to the economy.

Comment author: Clarity 21 January 2016 06:07:21AM 0 points [-]

Finally my readings of Stratfor Wikileak documents about Venezuala are topical!