Open thread, Jan. 18 - Jan. 24, 2016

MrMind

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If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.

Notes for future OT posters:

1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.

2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)

3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.

4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.

I don't know what you mean by "inferred empirically." If you mean "statistical inference," there are tons of unstated assumptions that basically assume the observed object is benign or indifferent. There is work in machine learning on learning in adversarial settings, but it's a much harder problem. Markets are super adversarial, and in addition there are incentives against publishing sensible analyses (why give away money to hostile/competing interests?)

edit: Sorry, I should say "tons of assumptions." People state them, and it's clear they are benign, e.g. samples are i.i.d.

How interesting! I've seen work on game theoretic optimal poker playing. I can only imagine how sophisticated the market versions would be. Looking forward to seeing a wikipedia page on the topic one day :)