You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

Lumifer comments on Open thread, Feb. 01 - Feb. 07, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

3 Post author: MrMind 01 February 2016 08:24AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (177)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Lumifer 03 February 2016 05:31:49PM *  3 points [-]

the statements taken as a whole are true

You mean that all the statements are true -- right? You're evaluating "a AND b AND c AND d AND e AND f"?

The P of each statement must then lie between 0.7 and 1.0

Correct.

if they are equal then the P of each statement is 0.7 ^ (1/6) = 0.94

You are assuming the statements are independent of each other. That's not necessarily so.

To take an extreme example, all six statements could be a function of the same single property/event. In such a case the P of each is 0.7 and the P of all of them is still 0.7.