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Lumifer comments on Open thread, Feb. 01 - Feb. 07, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Optimism changes your behaviour, that may or may not change your chances.
In any case, on the pessimism - optimism axis both extremes look like not a good place to be. To discuss where is the sweet spot in the middle you first need the ability (vocabulary and metrics) to talk about specific locations in the middle, otherwise it's all just handwaving.