Optimism changes your chances
Optimism changes your behaviour, that may or may not change your chances.
In any case, on the pessimism - optimism axis both extremes look like not a good place to be. To discuss where is the sweet spot in the middle you first need the ability (vocabulary and metrics) to talk about specific locations in the middle, otherwise it's all just handwaving.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)
3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.
4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.