Seems like a problem that could be solved by making more bets.
If you only make one bet, you have either 0% or 100% success rate, and neither reflects how good you actually are.
Yes. I can understand feeling locked in if you only make 1 bet every few years and it's extremely high profile, and you make it part of your identity. But I can't imagine feeling like that in any of my IEM or GJP trades (or even my PB predictions!), since I was taking positions in a number of markets and could regularly back off or take the other side when the price changed to something I disagreed with; there you are encouraged to disidentify with trades as much as possible and take an outside view where you're just making one of many calibrated predictio...
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
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