Seems like a problem that could be solved by making more bets.
The problem is not finding out "how good you actually are". The problem is that making the bet locks you into a particular state of mind which involves more bias and less updating on evidence.
The problem is that making the bet locks you into a particular state of mind which involves more bias and less updating on evidence.
It's not clear that this would be the case. Even if you're making only a few bets at a time (as opposed to participating in a liquid market), there will always be some odds at which you'll want to hedge the bet from the other side.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
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