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_rpd comments on Where does our community disagree about meaningful issues? - Less Wrong Discussion

16 Post author: ChristianKl 12 February 2016 11:34AM

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Comment author: _rpd 12 February 2016 08:40:54PM 1 point [-]

predict with high confidence a Republican win

Odd since most prediction markets have a 60/40 split in favor of a Democrat winning the US presidency.

E.g., https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres16_Quotes.html

Sanders vs. Trump.

The polls have Sanders ahead in this particular matchup ...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html

Comment author: JohnGreer 13 February 2016 01:19:44AM 1 point [-]

Yes, I've mostly seen a Democrat favored. I bet two bitcoin on Hilary a year ago based on FiveThirtyEight's posts.

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