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ChristianKl comments on Open Thread Feb 16 - Feb 23, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: Elo 15 February 2016 02:12AM

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Comment author: ChristianKl 16 February 2016 05:59:56PM 0 points [-]

So I would expect any $500 genome to be in 2017 or 2018. Some dark horse could overnight announce a $500 whole-genome at any time... but I wouldn't bet on it, in part because that NHS data may not reflect any such service's existence.

Yes. The metric that's used is NIH data. Given that they brought sequencing machines in the last years and the cost of the sequencing machine's isn't completely included in the year they are brought and the 2016 sequencing budget likely pays for machines brought in 2014 and 2015 even if great new machine get's introduced in 2016.

Comment author: gwern 16 February 2016 08:24:01PM 0 points [-]

Right. Great internal validity since you can count on them to not be playing any games with costs like, say, commercial companies such as Illumina; but imperfect external validity which renders down-to-month precision questionable.

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