It is a serious mistake to assume that because something could happen by natural laws, it is automatically more probable than something which would be a violation of natural laws.
For example, suppose I flipped a coin 10,000 times in a row and always got heads. In theory there are many possible explanations for this. But suppose by careful investigation we had reduced it to two possibilities:
Number 1 could theoretically happen by natural laws, number 2 could not. But number 2 is more probable anyway.
The same thing might well be true about explanations such as "a passing black hole that happens to create a violation of the laws of biochemistry." I see no reason to think that such things are more probable than the supernatural.
(That said, I agree that Eric is mistaken about this.)
But suppose by careful investigation we had reduced it to two possibilities:
Just to be clear, this is obviously not what is happening with Eric. But let's run with the scenario:
Number 1 could theoretically happen by natural laws, number 2 could not. But number 2 is more probable anyway.
I would contest that this is not the case. If you think that n° 2 is more probable, I would say it's just measuring that the probability you assign to the supernatural is higher than 2^10k (besides, this is exactly Jaynes' suggested way to numerically estimate intuiti...
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page before posting.)
3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.
4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.