I have a feeling we're slowly slipping towards the conflict between the "impersonal forces" and "great people" views of history :-)
A synthesis of the two views clearly outperforms either view on its own. There seems to be a difference between, basically, forest fires and earthquakes--both rely on long build-ups (the impersonal forces contribution) and when they happen may be surprising (I couldn't tell you when the housing bubble would burst until it had but I could tell you that it would eventually), but the while there's little control over when an earthquake happens and how the consequences shake out, there's quite a bit of control over when a fire happens and how the consequences shake out (the great people contribution).
A synthesis of the two views clearly outperforms either view on its own.
Of course -- they are just endpoints and the discussion is about where in the middle the proper balance is struck.
forest fires and earthquakes
That's an interesting distinction -- can you say more about it?
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