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Clarity comments on Open Thread Feb 29 - March 6, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion
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Your suspicion is true of any non axiom.
For instance, givedirectly helps materialists more than non materialists but materialists are unhappier than materialsts particularly among the poor. Is that evidence against the effectiveness of givedirectly? That's up for debate, but I could have picked just about any example.
Perhaps it's worth understanding - do I fit into the category of "keeping too many options open (and have gotten burned)" or do I fit into the category of "have been trying risk-iterate for a while (and have gotten burned)" before considering the advice and how it might apply.