Your suspicion is true of any non axiom.
For instance, givedirectly helps materialists more than non materialists but materialists are unhappier than materialsts particularly among the poor. Is that evidence against the effectiveness of givedirectly? That's up for debate, but I could have picked just about any example.
DON'T KEEP YOUR OPTIONS OPEN, RISK AND ITERATE INSTEAD
I suspect this advice works for some people some of the time;
suspicion
Perhaps it's worth understanding - do I fit into the category of "keeping too many options open (and have gotten burned)" or do I fit into the category of "have been trying risk-iterate for a while (and have gotten burned)" before considering the advice and how it might apply.
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threadspage before posting.)
3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Main.
4. Open Threads should start on Monday, and end on Sunday.