But just as for many applications the performance bottleneck isn't CPU speed, for most people the success bottleneck isn't rationality.
Instrumental rationality, among other things, points people to whichever of their skills or abilities is currently the performance bottleneck and encourages them to work on that, not the thing that's most fun to work on. So we would still expect instrumental rationalists to win in this model.
(Yes, epistemic rationality might not lead to winning as directly.)
Yes, epistemic rationality might not lead to winning as directly
Why would that be? Is it that many people work in areas where it doesn't really matters if they are mistaken? Or do people already know enough about the area they work in and further improvements have diminishing returns? Epistemic rationality provides a direction where people should put their efforts if they want to become less wrong about stuff. Are people simply unwilling to put in that effort?
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