Besides the triviality of everything having a beginning, a developement and an end, I found that the model is too simplicistic and already shows some crack when applied to LessWrong:
pre-existing difference: about LW there was only one man, Eliezer, who perceived the difference between what he considered a sane approach to AI and all the others approach;
then it came a blog about showing this approach and "raising the sanity waterline", which I think created the difference in many of his followers, or at least attracted enough interest. In this case, the rallying flag created the difference in those who attended, which in turn created (or smoothed) more differences;
developement and end are mixed in this case, there was supposedly a peak and a denouement, but the site is still active, the tribe has fragmented and regrouped again.
then it came a blog about showing this approach and "raising the sanity waterline", which I think created the difference in many of his followers
That is... a very strong statement. You think that EY's blog actually created the differences in the people who then coalesced into a tribe around their creator?
and regrouped again
What do you count as regrouping?
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