You're looking at Less Wrong's discussion board. This includes all posts, including those that haven't been promoted to the front page yet. For more information, see About Less Wrong.

Vaniver comments on Open thread, Apr. 18 - Apr. 24, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

2 Post author: MrMind 18 April 2016 07:19AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (176)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: gjm 20 April 2016 04:44:25PM 0 points [-]

Risk aversion (in reality) does not boil down to a concave utility function.

See, e.g., this paper: there are theorems saying e.g. that if your utility function is concave enough to make you turn down a bet where you win $110 or lose $100 with equal probability, it must also be concave enough to make you turn down a bet where you win a trillion dollars or lose $1k with equal probability.

Comment author: Vaniver 20 April 2016 05:41:59PM 1 point [-]

if your utility function is concave enough to make you turn down a bet where you win $110 or lose $100 with equal probability

...at any wealth level, which should be surprising. If Bill Gates thinks that gamble is an expected utility loss, we predict he'll be opposed to basically any gamble, but why would we believe the premise that Bill Gates thinks that gamble is an expected utility loss?

Comment author: gjm 20 April 2016 09:23:07PM 0 points [-]

at any wealth level

The "concave utility function" theory of risk aversion predicts that, all else being equal, richer people will be less risk-averse about any given sum of money. And I would in fact expect Bill Gates to accept positive-dollar-expectation bets of size ~$100 without a moment's thought.