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Lumifer comments on Sleepwalk bias, self-defeating predictions and existential risk - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: Stefan_Schubert 22 April 2016 06:31PM

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Comment author: James_Miller 22 April 2016 07:18:56PM *  2 points [-]

Related: Scott Adams' Law of Slow Moving Disasters

"whenever humanity can see a slow-moving disaster coming, we find a way to avoid it. Let’s run through some examples:

Thomas Malthus famously predicted that the world would run out of food as the population grew. Instead, humans improved their farming technology.

When I was a kid, it was generally assumed that the world would be destroyed by a global nuclear war. The world has been close to nuclear disaster a few times, but so far we’ve avoided all-out nuclear war.

The world was supposed to run out of oil by now, but instead we keep finding new ways to extract it from the ground. The United States has unexpectedly become a net provider of energy.

The debt problem in the United States was supposed to destroy the economy. Instead, the deficit is shrinking, the stock market is surging, and the price of gold is plummeting."

Comment author: Lumifer 22 April 2016 07:29:08PM *  7 points [-]

The debt problem in the United States was supposed to destroy the economy. Instead, the deficit is shrinking

Heh. Notice a subtle substitution here :-) The deficit might be shrinking, but the debt keeps on growing.

Also, Scott Adams' list looks like the list of hysterics that a variety of Nervous Nellies threw over the last half a century or so. Media loves declaring a impending disaster for obvious reasons. How many of them were actual slow-moving disasters coming?