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Thrasymachus comments on Sleepwalk bias, self-defeating predictions and existential risk - Less Wrong Discussion

5 Post author: Stefan_Schubert 22 April 2016 06:31PM

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Tags: x-risk biases

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Comment author: Thrasymachus 22 April 2016 10:21:07PM -1 points [-]

I'm not sure. It seems important to see whether there is sleepwalk bias is to try and gather a representative sample of predictions/warnings and see how they go. Yet this is pretty hard to do: I can think of examples (like those mentioned in the post) where the disaster was averted, but I can think of others where the disaster did happen despite warnings (I'd argue climate change fits into this category, for example).

Comment author: SquirrelInHell 23 April 2016 02:49:56AM 6 points [-]

This comment on Scott Adams' blog gives some suggestions:

World War II? Decimation of major fisheries? Genocide of North American natives? Sort of by definition, we haven't wiped out the whole human race yet, but we have endured some seriously bad disasters that people saw coming - and a certain amount of "that wasn't so bad" comes from the perspective of the survivors and the children who never knew how good things were before the disaster hit. Maybe loss of the chestnut trees isn't a big deal to people today, but if chestnuts were important to you - things certainly aren't looking so good in the North American chestnut department anymore.

Comment author: Lumifer 22 April 2016 10:44:28PM 4 points [-]

the disaster did happen despite warnings (I'd argue climate change fits into this category, for example).

<looks around>

Disaster did happen?

Comment author: CellBioGuy 25 April 2016 04:02:51AM *  0 points [-]

It's ongoing with no sign of stopping. See coral reefs, the slowing of the North Atlantic circulation, the fact that the whole southern half of the American Great Plains will dry up and blow away starting in a few decades when the fossil aquifers (the pumping of which is the only thing keeping them from turning to desert at modern temperatures) dry up, etc.

Comment author: Lumifer 25 April 2016 04:51:54AM 2 points [-]

It's ongoing with no sign of stopping.

Let me repeat: disaster did happen?

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