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Lumifer comments on Sleepwalk bias, self-defeating predictions and existential risk - Less Wrong Discussion
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I'm not sure. It seems important to see whether there is sleepwalk bias is to try and gather a representative sample of predictions/warnings and see how they go. Yet this is pretty hard to do: I can think of examples (like those mentioned in the post) where the disaster was averted, but I can think of others where the disaster did happen despite warnings (I'd argue climate change fits into this category, for example).
<looks around>
Disaster did happen?
It's ongoing with no sign of stopping. See coral reefs, the slowing of the North Atlantic circulation, the fact that the whole southern half of the American Great Plains will dry up and blow away starting in a few decades when the fossil aquifers (the pumping of which is the only thing keeping them from turning to desert at modern temperatures) dry up, etc.
Let me repeat: disaster did happen?