It is not quite clear to me whether you are here just talking about instances of sleepwalking, or whether you are also talking about a predictive error indicating anti-sleepwalking bias: i.e. that they wrongly predicted that the relevant actors would act, yet they sleepwalked into a disaster.

Also, my claim is not that sleepwalking never occurs, but that people on average seem to think that it happens more often than it actually does.