Were there two, an official control group and another group consisting of intelligence analysts with access to classified information?
In Superforcasting Tetlock writes that the main documents of the comparison between the GJP forecasters against the intelligence analysts with access to classified information is classified. Tetlock doesn't directly say something about that comparison but reports in his book that a newspaper article says that the GJP forecasters were 30% better (if I remember right).
Here is the leak. It says that the superforecasters averaged 30% better than the classified analysts. Presumably that's the 2012-2013 season only and we won't hear about other years.
What is weird is that other sources talk about "the control group" and for years I thought that this was the control group. But Tetlock implies that he doesn't have access to the comparison with the classified group, but that he does have access to the comparison with the control group. In particular, he mentions that IARPA set a 4th year target of beating the control...
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