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Manfred comments on Open thread, June 27 - July 3, 2016 - Less Wrong Discussion

3 Post author: Clarity 27 June 2016 01:46AM

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Comment author: Manfred 29 June 2016 08:03:37PM *  2 points [-]

Argument thread!

You should probably stay at your big company job because the people who are currently startup founders are self-selected for, on average, different things than you're selecting yourself for by trying to jump on a popular trend, and so their success is only a weak predictor of your success.

Startups often cash out by generating hype and getting bought for ridiculous amounts of money by a big company. But they are very, very often, in more sober analysis, not worth this money. From a societal perspective this is bad because it's not properly aligning incentives with wealth creation, and from a new-entrant perspective this is bad because you likely fail if the bubble pops before you can sell.