They failed, because as the blogger Epicurean Dealmaker pointed out on Twitter, “Markets distill the biases, opinions, & convictions of elites,” which makes them “Structurally less able to predict populist movements.”
That seems to be way off. Prediction markets reflects the opinion of those who enter in the market. AFAIK there's no barrier to the lower income strata of the popoluation. Polls also failed to predict the result, so I would say that it was not a structural failure of the markets.
Prediction markets reflects the opinion of those who enter in the market. AFAIK there's no barrier to the lower income strata of the popoluation.
The thing is, the markets reflect committed-capital-weighted opinions of market participants. This is not an egalitarian democracy.
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